Corpcentre's Blog

September 1, 2009

Is a Second Round of the Recession on the Horizon?

Speculation has been growing in some economic circles that a “double-dip” recession – a second wave – is a distinct possibility. Some investors and economists fear that the government stimulus programs in various countries have managed to stabilize economies but have failed to jump start any long term growth.

Countries like Japan, Germany, and France have recently posted positive growth figures for the second quarter. However, world stock markets have remained fairly volatile.

The growing fear is that growth generated by the trillion of government stimulus dollars is only temporary and will cease as soon as the governments cease funding the various programs, most probably within the coming year. Thus, the term “double-dip” has come into use.

In order to truly declare an end to the recession, countries should be experiencing substantial sustained growth in consecutive quarters. This has failed to materialize yet in any significant fashion. Certainly, there is reason to be optimistic but consumers have yet to display a return to a strong buying mentality. Many are still in a savings mode, particularly in the United States. Even though interest rates are at an historic low in the U.S., many consumers fear taking on any more debt. Canadians are faring better than their neighbours in the U.S., but they, too, are still leery about the economy, as unemployment is still rampant in the nation, especially in the manufacturing sectors.

Economists hope that governments will not make the mistake of ending the stimulus packages too early. A good beginning can lead to a stable financial future if the elements of recovery are managed properly and timely.

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